Cart recovery cost calculator

Quick answer

Start with one period. Subtract order costs from sales credited to the recovery program. Then explore what share of those orders would have to be extra to cover program costs. This uses your assumptions; it does not measure which sales the program caused. Read the method.

Source context: Zettler Digital, measuring email and SMS incrementality; Common Thread Collective, measurements for profitability.

Start with the charges you actually pay.

Choose one reporting period. Enter each charge or mark it as not applicable. A missing amount stays unknown, so it cannot silently become a free service.

Use USD amounts with up to two decimal places. Enter zero when a charge is genuinely zero. Put a charge in one row only.

Program costs

Platform and fixed fees

Charges for the period you are evaluating.

Message and usage charges

Use the actual billable units on your quote or invoice.

Carrier and network charges

Include pass-through charges where they apply.

AI and service charges

Enter separate charges only if they are not already included.

Labor and operations

Use additional program labor and service costs.

Setup and other costs

Allocate one-time costs consistently with your reporting period.

Commissions or revenue share

Use the actual billing basis. Do not count the same charge elsewhere.

Total of your entered program costsEnter your costs

What would it take to break even?

A sale credited to a recovery message may have happened anyway. Here, extra orders means orders that would not have happened without the program. Change the assumed share to see how it affects the result.

Net revenue from credited orders, USD

Sales credited to this program for the same period, after discounts and refunds.

Variable costs of those orders, USD

Product, payment, fulfillment and other order costs. Exclude program costs already entered above.

Lost margin on otherwise full-price orders, USD

Estimate the margin lost on purchases that would otherwise have happened at full price. This is the counterfactual loss on those purchases, not a second deduction of all basket discounts.

Assumed extra-order share, percent

Break-even share under your assumptionsEnter the contribution inputs

The share is a model threshold, not a measured lift.

This threshold and the line below keep the entered basket, program costs and lost-margin allowance fixed. If a different extra-order share changes the lost margin, change both assumptions and calculate that scenario.

Modeled contribution at your selected shareNo share selected

Enter the order figures above to see the contribution curve.

Each amount is calculated from your entries for one period. Shares from 0% to 100% are assumptions. The entered basket, program costs and lost-margin allowance stay fixed along this line.

Check the contribution mix.

The model assumes that additional orders have the same contribution mix as the attributed-order basket. If their mix differs, or otherwise-lost contribution changes with the share, rerun the model with those assumptions. One percentage cannot resolve that uncertainty.

The calculation, with its limits

First, subtract variable order costs from attributed-order net revenue. That gives the contribution in the basket before program costs. Then apply the additional-share assumption.

Assumed additional contribution= share × basket contribution− program costs− otherwise-lost contribution

Break-even share: With the entered lost-margin allowance held fixed, program costs plus that allowance divided by positive basket contribution. The displayed share rounds up to two decimal places. A threshold above 100% means this modeled basket cannot cover the entered costs.
Zero or negative basket contribution: There is no positive-contribution threshold to report. The model still shows the result at each assumed share, so a loss is not hidden.
What this does not establish: Attribution is not a counterfactual. Use a suitable experiment and review its eligibility, assignment, uncertainty and costs before making a causal claim.

Download the worksheets

Cost input sheet

Record amounts, explicit unknowns, source notes and the reporting period.

Download cost sheet, CSV

Group measurement sheet

Use one eligible unit and a consistent definition for each group.

Download group sheet, CSV

Conversation case sheet

Write verified facts, permitted actions and the behavior actually observed.

Download case sheet, CSV

Formula and source notes

Take the definitions and limitations with the worksheet.

Download method, Markdown

Sources and scope

Zettler Digital, measuring email and SMS incrementality. A practical group and order-reconciliation method. This worksheet does not inherit a universal test duration or holdout size.
Common Thread Collective, measurements for profitability. Revenue, costs and valid experimentation answer different parts of the decision.
Red Stag, interpreting cart abandonment. Cart counts and attributed orders do not establish recoverable revenue or additional profit.

These sources explain the definitions and measurement principles used here. The worksheet applies the arithmetic to the values you enter.

Your entries stay in your browser

Amounts and case records are processed in your browser. Your entries are not sent to a server or saved between visits. Export the record to keep it.

Download the cost worksheet

Record actual charges and invoice references in the CSV, using the same reporting period.

Download cost worksheet

Publisher disclosure

Zobi publishes this worksheet. Your entries are processed in your browser, not sent to a server. The calculations apply the stated definitions to the values you enter.

Method and calculation definitions updated 4 November 2026. Use the method notes alongside your exported records.

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