Quick answer
Mastercard and Datos Insights projected 324 million annual chargebacks worldwide by 2028, up from their 261 million estimate for 2025. A separate Merchant Risk Council survey found that 62% of merchants reported an increase in first-party misuse disputes. The first figure models chargeback volume. The second records the share of merchants reporting a trend.
Mastercard’s 2025 chargeback cost analysis
See the source and calculation. · Download the statistics and sources.
How much could global chargeback volume grow?
A forecast helps explain the scale of the problem. It takes a merchant’s own payment data to measure how often that merchant receives chargebacks.
How many global chargebacks does Mastercard’s outlook project?
Mastercard and Datos Insights estimated 261 million global chargebacks in 2025 and projected 324 million a year by 2028.
Global chargebacks in Mastercard’s report, modeled with Datos Insights. 2025 estimate and 2028 forecast, in Mastercard and Datos Insights’ 2025 report edition. Both values come from the same 2025 outlook. The 2028 total is a forecast.
Mastercard’s 2025 chargeback cost analysis · Mastercard and Datos Insights chargeback outlook · Link to this statistic
How many more chargebacks does the forecast imply?
The increase from 261 million to 324 million implies 63 million more annual chargebacks, or about 24.1% growth over three years.
Global chargebacks in Mastercard’s report, modeled with Datos Insights. 2025 estimate and 2028 forecast, in Mastercard and Datos Insights’ 2025 report edition. Zobi calculation: (324 million minus 261 million) divided by 261 million. The percentage is calculated from rounded reported inputs.
Mastercard’s 2025 chargeback cost analysis · Mastercard and Datos Insights chargeback outlook · Link to this statistic
How much does Mastercard expect the financial impact to rise?
Mastercard’s outlook puts the rise in global chargeback financial impact at $7.90 billion, from $33.79 billion in 2025 to $41.69 billion in 2028.
Global chargebacks in Mastercard’s report, modeled with Datos Insights. 2025 estimate and 2028 forecast, in Mastercard and Datos Insights’ 2025 report edition. Zobi calculation: $41.69 billion minus $33.79 billion. This is a modeled financial impact figure. It has a different unit from dispute count and per-dispute processing cost.
Mastercard’s 2025 chargeback cost analysis · Link to this statistic
What do merchants report about dispute reasons?
Reporting more disputes over time and identifying what caused them are two different survey questions. Keep the group of respondents separate from the set of transactions.
What share of chargebacks did merchants identify as fraud?
Merchant respondents in Mastercard and Datos Insights’ research identified about 45% of their chargebacks as fraudulent.
Merchant research conducted by Datos Insights in the United States, United Kingdom, Brazil and Australia. 2025 report edition. These classifications include first- and third-party fraud and rely on reported identification.
Mastercard and Datos Insights chargeback outlook · Mastercard’s 2025 chargeback cost analysis · Link to this statistic
How many merchants reported an increase in first-party misuse disputes?
In the Merchant Risk Council’s 2026 report, 62% of merchants reported an increase in first-party misuse disputes.
Merchant Risk Council surveyed 1,278 ecommerce payment and fraud professionals across 37 countries. The survey ran in November and December 2025 and was published in the 2026 report. This measures the share reporting an increase, with no size of increase or share of transactions implied.
Merchant Risk Council’s 2026 global merchant survey · Link to this statistic
How many merchants reported more refund or policy abuse?
In the same Merchant Risk Council survey, 57% of merchants reported more refund or policy abuse over the previous year.
Merchant Risk Council surveyed 1,278 ecommerce payment and fraud professionals across 37 countries. The survey ran in November and December 2025 and was published in the 2026 report. The published summary does not state how many merchants reported both types of increase.
Merchant Risk Council’s 2026 global merchant survey · Link to this statistic
How far apart were the two reports of increases?
Reported increases in first-party misuse disputes were five percentage points more common than reported increases in refund or policy abuse in the Merchant Risk Council’s 2026 results.
Merchant Risk Council surveyed 1,278 ecommerce payment and fraud professionals across 37 countries. The survey ran in November and December 2025 and was published in the 2026 report. Zobi calculation: 62% minus 57%. The two measures can overlap and the item response counts are not shown.
Merchant Risk Council’s 2026 global merchant survey · Link to this statistic
How much does a chargeback cost?
Separate the amount under dispute from the work of processing it. The first can vary with order value. The second depends on who handles it and which expenses the study counts.
What processing cost does Mastercard report for financial institutions?
Mastercard reports $9.08 to $10.32 in processing cost per disputed transaction for financial institutions, a $1.24 span.
Financial institutions in Mastercard’s summary of the Datos Insights research. 2025 report edition. Zobi calculation: $10.32 minus $9.08 gives the width of the reported range. The range describes the institutions’ processing cost. Merchants can face separate fees, merchandise and labor costs.
Mastercard’s 2025 chargeback cost analysis · Link to this statistic
How do retail and travel chargeback amounts compare?
Mastercard’s 2025 analysis put the average chargeback amount at $84 for retail and $120 for travel and hospitality, a $36 difference.
Merchant research conducted by Datos Insights in the United States, United Kingdom, Brazil and Australia. 2025 report edition. Zobi calculation: $120 minus $84. Retail in this report includes merchants beyond ecommerce, and the chargeback amount differs from the net cost to the merchant.
Mastercard’s 2025 chargeback cost analysis · Link to this statistic
How far apart were the average US and UK amounts?
In the Mastercard study, US chargebacks averaged $110 and UK chargebacks averaged $82, a difference of $28.
Merchant research conducted by Datos Insights in the United States, United Kingdom, Brazil and Australia. 2025 report edition. Zobi calculation: $110 minus $82. The study does not adjust these averages for product mix or merchant type.
Mastercard’s 2025 chargeback cost analysis · Link to this statistic
Who bears the loss when debit fraud is recorded?
The Federal Reserve tracks the value of fraud losses borne by merchants, issuers and cardholders. That is a different denominator from chargebacks received or disputes won.
How much did US debit fraud cost relative to transaction value?
US debit and prepaid fraud losses across all parties amounted to 17.6 basis points of covered issuers’ transaction value in 2023, up from 7.8 basis points in 2011.
Debit and prepaid transactions reported by covered US issuers to the Federal Reserve. Calendar years 2011 and 2023. These are loss-to-value ratios across covered payment types and channels.
Federal Reserve covered-issuer debit fraud data · Link to this statistic
How did the debit fraud loss ratio change?
The Federal Reserve’s debit fraud loss ratio in 2023 was about 2.26 times the 2011 level for covered issuers.
Debit and prepaid transactions reported by covered US issuers to the Federal Reserve. Calendar years 2011 and 2023. Zobi calculation: 17.6 divided by 7.8. This compares ratios of losses to value, using the rounded published inputs.
Federal Reserve covered-issuer debit fraud data · Link to this statistic
What share of US debit fraud losses did merchants absorb?
Merchants absorbed 49.9% of covered US debit fraud losses in 2023, versus 28.3% for issuers and 21.8% for cardholders.
Debit and prepaid transactions reported by covered US issuers to the Federal Reserve. Calendar year 2023. The percentages describe who absorbed the dollars lost.
Federal Reserve covered-issuer debit fraud data · Link to this statistic
How did the merchant share of covered debit fraud losses change?
The merchant share of covered US debit fraud losses was 11.6 percentage points higher in 2023 than in 2011.
Debit and prepaid transactions reported by covered US issuers to the Federal Reserve. Calendar years 2011 and 2023. Zobi calculation: 49.9% minus 38.3%. The shift measures loss allocation and does not identify a change in the number of disputed transactions.
Federal Reserve covered-issuer debit fraud data · Link to this statistic
How to use the comparisons
Before comparing a dispute rate with a benchmark, write down the transaction count, the network’s eligible population and the time window. Track disputed amount, refunded orders and losses absorbed by each party separately. That lets you tell whether a rising dollar total reflects more cases, larger orders or a change in who pays.
Sources, definitions and downloads
Mastercard and Datos Insights provide the 2025 projections and reported merchant and issuer costs. The Merchant Risk Council survey reports merchant responses. Federal Reserve debit issuer reporting measures fraud losses relative to transaction value and allocates them among parties. Each row carries the correct base.
Sources and measurement context
How many global chargebacks does Mastercard’s outlook project
Reported value: 261 | 324 million annual chargebacks.
Population: Global chargebacks in Mastercard’s report, modeled with Datos Insights.
Measurement period: 2025 estimate and 2028 forecast, in Mastercard and Datos Insights’ 2025 report edition.
Denominator: Total annual chargeback count in the global model.
Limitations: Both values come from the same 2025 outlook. The 2028 total is a forecast.
Read the original sourceHow many more chargebacks does the forecast imply
Reported value: 24.1 percent projected increase.
Population: Global chargebacks in Mastercard’s report, modeled with Datos Insights.
Measurement period: 2025 estimate and 2028 forecast, in Mastercard and Datos Insights’ 2025 report edition.
Denominator: The modeled 2025 count of 261 million.
Limitations: The percentage is calculated from rounded reported inputs.
Read the original sourceHow much does Mastercard expect the financial impact to rise
Reported value: 7.90 USD billion increase.
Population: Global chargebacks in Mastercard’s report, modeled with Datos Insights.
Measurement period: 2025 estimate and 2028 forecast, in Mastercard and Datos Insights’ 2025 report edition.
Denominator: The report’s projected financial impact totals in US dollars.
Limitations: This is a modeled financial impact figure. It has a different unit from dispute count and per-dispute processing cost.
Read the original sourceWhat share of chargebacks did merchants identify as fraud
Reported value: 45 percent of chargebacks.
Population: Merchant research conducted by Datos Insights in the United States, United Kingdom, Brazil and Australia.
Measurement period: 2025 report edition.
Denominator: Chargebacks as classified by the merchant respondents.
Limitations: These classifications include first- and third-party fraud and rely on reported identification.
Read the original sourceHow many merchants reported an increase in first-party misuse disputes
Reported value: 62 percent of merchants.
Population: Merchant Risk Council surveyed 1,278 ecommerce payment and fraud professionals across 37 countries.
Measurement period: The survey ran in November and December 2025 and was published in the 2026 report.
Denominator: Merchant responses to the increase-in-disputes item.
Limitations: This measures the share reporting an increase, with no size of increase or share of transactions implied.
Read the original sourceHow many merchants reported more refund or policy abuse
Reported value: 57 percent of merchants.
Population: Merchant Risk Council surveyed 1,278 ecommerce payment and fraud professionals across 37 countries.
Measurement period: The survey ran in November and December 2025 and was published in the 2026 report.
Denominator: Merchant responses to the refund or policy abuse item.
Limitations: The published summary does not state how many merchants reported both types of increase.
Read the original sourceHow far apart were the two reports of increases
Reported value: 5 percentage points.
Population: Merchant Risk Council surveyed 1,278 ecommerce payment and fraud professionals across 37 countries.
Measurement period: The survey ran in November and December 2025 and was published in the 2026 report.
Denominator: Separate questions in the same published survey summary.
Limitations: The two measures can overlap and the item response counts are not shown.
Read the original sourceWhat processing cost does Mastercard report for financial institutions
Reported value: 9.08 | 10.32 USD per disputed transaction.
Population: Financial institutions in Mastercard’s summary of the Datos Insights research.
Measurement period: 2025 report edition.
Denominator: Disputed transactions processed by financial institutions in the research.
Limitations: The range describes the institutions’ processing cost. Merchants can face separate fees, merchandise and labor costs.
Read the original sourceHow do retail and travel chargeback amounts compare
Reported value: 36 USD difference.
Population: Merchant research conducted by Datos Insights in the United States, United Kingdom, Brazil and Australia.
Measurement period: 2025 report edition.
Denominator: Reported average chargeback amount within each named sector.
Limitations: Retail in this report includes merchants beyond ecommerce, and the chargeback amount differs from the net cost to the merchant.
Read the original sourceHow far apart were the average US and UK amounts
Reported value: 28 USD difference.
Population: Merchant research conducted by Datos Insights in the United States, United Kingdom, Brazil and Australia.
Measurement period: 2025 report edition.
Denominator: Reported average chargeback amount in each market.
Limitations: The study does not adjust these averages for product mix or merchant type.
Read the original sourceHow much did US debit fraud cost relative to transaction value
Reported value: 17.6 | 7.8 basis points of transaction value.
Population: Debit and prepaid transactions reported by covered US issuers to the Federal Reserve.
Measurement period: Calendar years 2011 and 2023.
Denominator: Debit and prepaid transaction value reported by covered issuers.
Limitations: These are loss-to-value ratios across covered payment types and channels.
Read the original sourceHow did the debit fraud loss ratio change
Reported value: 2.26 times the 2011 ratio.
Population: Debit and prepaid transactions reported by covered US issuers to the Federal Reserve.
Measurement period: Calendar years 2011 and 2023.
Denominator: The published 2011 ratio of 7.8 basis points.
Limitations: This compares ratios of losses to value, using the rounded published inputs.
Read the original sourceWhat share of US debit fraud losses did merchants absorb
Reported value: 49.9 | 28.3 | 21.8 percent of reported fraud losses.
Population: Debit and prepaid transactions reported by covered US issuers to the Federal Reserve.
Measurement period: Calendar year 2023.
Denominator: Fraud losses allocated among merchants, issuers and cardholders.
Limitations: The percentages describe who absorbed the dollars lost.
Read the original sourceHow did the merchant share of covered debit fraud losses change
Reported value: 11.6 percentage points.
Population: Debit and prepaid transactions reported by covered US issuers to the Federal Reserve.
Measurement period: Calendar years 2011 and 2023.
Denominator: Total covered fraud losses in each year.
Limitations: The shift measures loss allocation and does not identify a change in the number of disputed transactions.
Read the original sourcePublisher disclosure
Zobi publishes this research and provides shopper conversation services for Shopify stores.
Review how Zobi handles shopper conversations for your store.
Start growing revenueAbout the author
Rene Siller is Head of New Bets at Zobi and oversees the research side of the site.