Channel decision planner

Give email and SMS each a clear job, count the distinct people you can reach, and compare what two policies added for equal assigned groups. A completed worked example comes first so you can see the whole decision before editing your own.

Worked example results

The counts and amounts are a worked example, not current merchant data. No account is connected and nothing here is read from a store. The comparison is arithmetic on the figures entered; it is not causal proof, a confidence interval or a predicted lift.

Worked example Distinct reach

22,000

distinct people reachable

Email and SMS together reach 22,000 distinct people. SMS adds 2,000 people who are not on the email list, and 6,000 people are on both lists, so adding the two lists would count them twice.

Who each channel reaches
Group	People
Email only	14,000
SMS only	2,000
On both lists	6,000
Distinct people	22,000

Worked example Added contribution, equal groups

+$80

B minus A, after total policy cost

extra orders B needs to exceed its extra cost

Email, then SMS ends $80 ahead of Email only after its total policy cost, on equal groups of 1,000 assigned shoppers. Email, then SMS costs $220 more in total, so it needs at least 8 more orders than Email only to exceed that cost at an average $30 per qualifying order. It produced 10 more.

Policy A against policy B
Measure	Email only	Email, then SMS	B minus A
Assigned shoppers	1,000	1,000	Equal
Qualifying orders	80	90	+10
Total policy cost	$100	$320	+$220
Net after policy cost	$2,300	$2,380	+$80

Net is qualifying orders × average contribution per qualifying order ($30 in the example) minus the supplied total policy cost. Example: 80 × $30 minus $100 is $2,300.

Reach counts

Enter list sizes from one permissions snapshot. Whole numbers only. People on both lists must be matched by the same customer ID and cannot exceed either list. Zero is allowed.

Email listCurrent email marketing permission

SMS listCurrent SMS marketing permission

On both listsSame customer on email and SMS

Distinct people 22,000.

Policy comparison

Compare two policies only when shoppers were assigned to equal groups before sending. Count every assigned shopper, whether or not they opened a message, and every qualifying order those shoppers placed in the same outcome window; one shopper can place several. Costs are the supplied totals for running each policy for its whole group; this page does not look up or assume provider prices.

Policy A name

Policy B name

Policy A

Assigned shoppers, AWhole number above 0

Qualifying orders, AAll qualifying orders in the window

Total policy cost, A ($)Supplied total for the whole group

Policy B

Assigned shoppers, BMust equal group A

Qualifying orders, BAll qualifying orders in the window

Total policy cost, B ($)Supplied total for the whole group

Average contribution per qualifying order ($)Average order revenue after product cost, shipping, payment fees and discounts, before message costs, shared by both policies. $30 in the worked example. If the order mix differs materially between policies, use the actual contribution totals outside this simple shared-average model.

B minus A: +$80. Break-even: 8 extra orders.

Plan Worked example text

Each field holds example text for a pack-size and ordering message about DailyMix (DM-200), an illustrative generic product. Replace it with your own decisions. Boxes grow as you type.

Shopper taskWhat the shopper is trying to get done

Useful email jobWhat email does better here

Useful SMS jobWhat SMS does better here

Permissions and audience snapshotDate and source of the counts above

Shared contact ruleFrequency limits across both channels

Purchase and suppression stop conditionWhat stops either message

Reply source and ownerWhere replies go and who answers

Offer held constant or full package testedSay which, so the result is read correctly

Assignment and outcome windowHow shoppers were assigned and how long outcomes were counted

Primary result and guardrailsThe one result you decide on, and what must not get worse

Next decision, owner and dateWhat gets decided, by whom and when

Definitions

Email list and SMS list: People with current marketing permission for that channel in one snapshot.
On both lists: People on both lists, matched by the same customer ID. It must fit inside each list.
Distinct people: Email list plus SMS list minus people on both, so no one is counted twice.
Assigned shoppers: People assigned to a policy before sending, counted whether or not they opened anything. The comparison requires equal group sizes.
Qualifying orders: Every qualifying order placed by assigned shoppers within the same defined outcome window. One shopper can place several, so orders can exceed assigned shoppers.
Average contribution per qualifying order: Average order revenue after product cost, shipping, payment fees and discounts, before message costs, applied to both policies. The worked example uses $30. Enter your own figure. If the order mix differs materially between policies, use the actual contribution totals outside this simple shared-average model.
Total policy cost: The supplied total cost of running a policy for its whole group, such as message fees and any incentive. It is entered as a total, not built from assumed provider prices.
Net after policy cost: Qualifying orders × average contribution per qualifying order, minus total policy cost.
Break-even orders: The smallest whole number of extra orders B needs over A for the added contribution to exceed B's extra cost. If B costs less, it is 0. If both cost the same, it is 1.
What this does not tell you: Whether the difference would repeat, how certain it is or whether the channel caused it. Group sizes, timing and chance all matter; this page only does the arithmetic.